Uncertainty quantification in CO2 calculations

Global warming is one of the biggest threats that humanity is facing today. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are warming up our planet in a dangerous and irreversible way. It is imperative that quantitative scientists are able to quantify exactly and robustly the amount of CO2 emitted by humans to inform and support effective climate action. Even though such an exact CO2 account seems obvious and necessary, it is currently done with approaches that lack scientific rigor and fail to properly account for uncertainties.

This PhD research will explore the challenges that are associated with reliable quantification of CO2 emissions using the latest cutting-edge uncertainty quantification methods combined with modern digital and generative tools. These methods will take explicit and quantitative account of the randomness, vagueness and limited quality of CO2 data. Current methods for CO2 calculations are deterministic and entirely based on coarse grid conversion factors with little–if at all–mention of the uncertainty that such calculations can incur. This research seeks to bridge this gap, providing a more rigorous framework for CO2 emissions assessment.

Strathclyde researchers are teaming up with https://mavarick.ai to revolutionize the way CO2 calculations are done towards a more modern and rigorous account of the uncertainties. Methods that rigorously quantify the uncertainty include Gaussian processes and neural networks for regression and forecasting, imprecise-probability methods to model data quality and to propagate coarse measurements through the calculations. The use of generative tools to build knowledge representations of the CO2 grid factors will also be explored to tackle ambiguity and classification uncertainty.

We welcome applications from first-class graduates in mathematics, statistics, computer science or other quantitative sciences from the UK and Ireland. Enthusiasm for mathematical modelling and programming will be most valued. With this PhD you will have the opportunity to actively take part in driving change against global warming.