Meeting commitments to biodiversity conservation: developing a framework for predicting and monitoring the potential contributions of nature markets

Supervisors:

• Philip Stephens (Durham University)
• Flurina Wartmann (University of Aberdeen)
• Robbie McDonald (Office for Environmental Protection)
• Thomas Bodey (University of Aberdeen)

Project Summary:

The Environment Act 2021 sets bold commitments to address the loss of biodiversity in England. Most strikingly, these are represented by legally binding, statutory targets to halt the decline in species abundance by 2030, to increase abundance by 2042 by at least 10% relative to 2022 levels, and to reduce extinction risk by improving the Red List Index for England by 2042 (compared to 2022). These targets are set out in the Environmental Improvement Plan (EIP; https://tinyurl.com/govteip).

Mechanisms to achieve these targets rest heavily on agri-environment schemes and nature market approaches. As set out in the Nature Markets Framework (https://tinyurl.com/govtnatmkts), markets include both ‘compliance’ (principally, Biodiversity Net Gain and the nutrient neutrality market) and ‘voluntary’ (such as the Woodland Carbon Code, Peatland Code and emerging marine net gain) schemes.

Different markets will see different levels of uptake and impact on different geographic areas (with different impacts on the EIP target indicators). Determining the potential for nature markets to assist with meeting the EIP targets and identifying the time course of expectations which would suggest that progress is on track are hindered by knowledge gaps. Specifically, the likely spatial variation and time course of uptake of different nature markets is unknown (a social science knowledge gap), and the likely impact of uptake on the metrics by which the targets can be evaluated is also unknown (an ecological knowledge gap).

Here, we propose to investigate the plausible impacts of nature markets on the metrics by which the EIP targets will be evaluated (the species abundance and Red List indices). Our ultimate aim is to project plausible scenarios of nature market uptake and their outcomes for biodiversity indices, to make it possible to evaluate whether progress is on track to meet government targets.

Specific objectives are to:

1. review literature to determine the likely impacts and associated uncertainty of units of nature market implementation on EIP target indices;
2. use a combination of expert interviews and quantitative public surveys to identify attitudes towards nature markets and identify socio-economic and socio-demographic factors influencing these attitudes;
3. combine information from 1 and 2 in quantitative modelling approaches to predict impacts of plausible scenarios of nature market uptake on EIP target indices;
4. use the outcomes of 3 to propose a framework for monitoring progress towards the EIP targets, with a specific focus on identifying points at which novel interventions will be required.

To apply visit: https://netgain.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/phd-projects/

Student Profile:

This highly topical project is likely to appeal to applicants with some background in policy, social science and/or biodiversity conservation, who recognise the urgency of working at the interface between those disciplines. The ideal candidate would have a good first degree in a relevant discipline, plus either a Masters degree (potentially integrating multiple relevant areas) or equivalent experience. A willingness to engage with both quantitative modelling and qualitative methods is essential, and demonstrable experience with both is desirable. If appointed, you will gain knowledge, skills and experience in ecological and social science methodologies and, importantly, in combining the insights those yield to make quantitative predictions. Working closely with the project’s partner at the Office for Environmental Protection, you will also gain an understanding of the legislative and policy context of nature markets. You will develop interdisciplinary and intersectoral experience, and will be well placed to play a leading role in the evaluation or implementation of nature markets for securing nature recovery.